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Bred, raised, educated and life long Floridian, and proud of it. E-mail at one(dot)legged(dot)old(dot)fat(dot)man(at)gmail(dot)com

Monday, July 05, 2010

This Week's WX Outlook...

Tuesday: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming east between 6 and 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 10 % chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93. East wind between 3 and 9 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 94.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 93.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72.

Stacked high pressure has settled over the middle Atlantic region. Closer to home an old frontal boundary and mean layer trough stretches diagonally northwest to southeast across North Florida. Numerous showers and isolated storms are occurring along the trough. Models suggest precipitable waters of 2 to 2.5 inches along and south of this band of convection. Much drier air resides north of the trough with precipitable water closer to 1.2 inches along the Altamaha river according to RUC. Activity will decrease during the evening hours as high pressure ridge to the north begins to sag south and will go with 20-40% probability of precipitation for northeast Florida and 10-20% for southeast Georgia.

The stacked ridge will push south Tuesday and Wednesday bringing middle-upper level subsidence and drying. This combined with an easterly flow will result in only isolated probability of precipitation over interior northeast Florida as East Coast sea breeze moves well inland. Temperatures will increase to above average by Wednesday as subsident warming increases.

Hot and dry conditions persist on Thursday-Friday as the middle/upper high shifts south to the Gulf Coast and GFS precipitable waters fall to around 1 inch. Maximum temperatures will be in the middle 90s with southeast to southerly surface winds. Ridge then shifts south of the area by the weekend which should return temperatures/probability of precipitation back to near normal.

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