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Florida, United States
Bred, raised, educated and life long Floridian, and proud of it. E-mail at one(dot)legged(dot)old(dot)fat(dot)man(at)gmail(dot)com

Sunday, May 16, 2010

This Weeks WX Outlook ...

Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South southwest wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday Night: A 40 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South-southwest wind between 5 and 8 mph.

Tuesday: A 40 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. West-southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Wednesday: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Thursday: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 90.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Friday: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 87.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Water vapor imagery showing broad ridge, flattening with time, across the southeast US and mid Atlantic region. Considerable high clouds continue to stream in from the Gulf around the ridge with some thin spots noted. Some of these will move in towards dawn and as a result may see some partial clearing resulting in patches of fog as well as patches of low clouds along the coast as indicated by local CIG tool.

Unsettled weather is forecast as a large-scale trough continues to establish across the eastern US, along with the approach of a surface frontal boundary. In the lower levels of the atmosphere, an increasing southwest flow will bring an influx of moisture. These features will likely bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially during the afternoon and have continued previous forecast of likely showers for most areas.

Monday night, southern extension of broad trough is forecast to flatten, with accompanying frontal boundary weakening across the area. This will lead to a weaker southwest flow regime, less moisture and instability, and have included scattered showers for the area.

Tuesday, little change in mesoscale/synoptic scale pattern is forecast, with a weak frontal boundary draped across the area. Have included homogeneous chance showers due to limited dynamics.

For the remainder of the week the approach of short-wave trough will likely drive surface frontal boundary through the area Tuesday night or early Wednesday. In its wake, only isolated showers and storms are forecast as we step towards the convective season. The latest numerical run indicates temperatures will run slightly above normal through Thursday and then cool to near seasonal levels Friday and Saturday as a back door front moves through.

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