Monday: A 40 % chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming northeast between 10 and 13 mph.
Monday Night: A 20 % chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East-northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph becoming calm.
Tuesday: A 30 % chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Calm wind.
Tuesday Night: A 30 %chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 81.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 84.
Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
Although a series of short-waves will continue intermittent shower activity through early next week, thunderstorm potential will remain low through the period.
Latest MSAS analysis shows a frontal boundary lying just north of the Altamaha River with associated cloud cover remaining over South Carolina. Ridge axis that had dominated the region the past week as weakened significantly and shifted south of the area. This leaves the area under the influence of a very weak pressure pattern, although wind speeds ahead of the trough are beginning to increase from the southwest. This has been just enough flow to preclude significant fog development, but patchy conditions remain possible.
At the mid and upper levels, RUC analysis shows significant short-wave over the east central Gulf increasing cloudiness from south to north along the florida peninsula. A few lightning strikes have been noted over the Gulf as well as it shifts to the east and northeast.
Low will shift east of the area Monday with drier conditions expected for the area. Northeast flow off the Atlantic could result in low-level showers, but coverage will be no more than 20%. A short wave diving out of the southern plains during this time period will generate a low over the Panhandle by Tuesday morning. GFS is much stronger and wetter with these features than the ECMWF and will use a blend for now, as extended portion of models has been Inconsistent the last few runs. This yields low-end scattered probability of precipitation as short-wave passes largely north of the area.
Ridging behind the departing low pressure will bring in more drier and stable conditions. Temperatures starting out slightly below normal on wed warming to slightly above normal by Friday-Saturday
Allergy level forecast: Monday, 9.0 High; Tuesday, 6.9 Medium; Wednesday, 6.6 Medium.
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