… Widespread Rain Will Become Heavy At Times Today ...

Now

Light rain with embedded moderate showers continue to move across northeast Florida. The showers are moving northeast to east at 10 to 15 mph. Rainfall amounts will vary, generally less than a quarter of an inch.

Today

Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs 59 to 64. Southeast winds 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 %.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy with chance of rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, hen mostly clear after midnight. Lows in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 %.

Hazardous Weather

A Gulf Of Mexico low pressure system will bring widespread rain to the area today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. Heavy rainfall is the main concern. Ponding of water on area roads will create hazardous driving conditions. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible by the time the rain wraps up late this evening.

Forecast Details

Rain event has so far unfolded as expected. Most of northeast Florida has already picked up about a third of an inch overnight. Rain will continue throughout the day and will become heavy at times this afternoon. Two surface lows have developed along southern extension of an eastern moving cold front that stretches from Michigan all the way down into the Gulf of Mexico. One low is over southeastern Arkansas while a 2nd low is developing over the Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana. Based on surface analysis, the GFS is overall handling the situation the best. But overall the models are in really good agreement.

Vigorous shortwave over Texas will swing east across the Gulf Coast today. The Gulf low will race east and move somewhere across our southern zones this afternoon. There is some question as to how far north to bring the warm front but this will mainly have an impact on maximum temperatures. Large scale lift will become enhanced as the low treks across the area this afternoon.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected today in a broad swath centered around a line from Jacksonville to Gainesville. These amounts although somewhat excessive for this time of year, will remain below flash flood guidance numbers. However with that said there will likely be some minor Urban and Small Stream flooding today. Ponding of water on area roads will be an issue throughout the day. Did give some thought to a Flood Watch but extensive flooding is not anticipated. A few areas though could total as much as 3 inches by the time the rain wraps up this evening. Lesser amounts of rain are expected on the north and south edges of our County Warning Area, where total rainfall amounts will generally average around a half inch or less.

Very dynamical system, with the area embedded within the right entrance region of strong jet core north of the area, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms. The best chances will be along and south of the surface warm front, roughly south of a line from Gainesville to St. Augustine.

Temperatures today not likely to make much of a move due to rain and deep cloud layer. There will be potential for temperatures to near 70 degrees south of the warm front but most of the area will experience a chilly rain.

Colder air will be drawn into tonight as the cold front advances away from the region. Minimum temperatures tonight will rely on how fast we clear out but temperatures should remain just above freezing across the interior of southeast Georgia. Elsewhere temperatures will fall into the upper 30s and low 40s.

Today's Pollen Levels: 0.8 Low (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Juniper.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/