Today

Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 %.

Tonight

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Cooler. A 40 % chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Hazardous Weather

A cold front will move across the area today. isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this feature. Strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon south of a Gainesville to St. Augustine line with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds the main concerns.

Forecast Details

As of 330 am EST...a north-south oriented cold front was moving across the western section of Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms were moving across interior southeast Georgia and the Suwannee River valley region of North Florida. Local air mass has quickly modified with eemperatures/dewpoints in the 60s area-wide.

Powerful storm system will remain well to our north, although large scale forcing compliments of both temperature and vorticity advection will continue to fuel organized showers with possible embedded thunderstorms the remainder of tonight and stepping into this morning. A pulse strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with 50 knot low-level jet currently aligned across the area, however this jet will weaken towards sunrise as aforementioned storm system lifts even father north.

By sunrise, surface frontal system will enter interior southeast Georgia, with moisture axis shifting east over the local forecast area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm are forecast, with the exception of isolated showers along and west of highways 441/221 in southeast Georgia due to expected frontal passage.

Weakening frontal boundary will advance slowly across the forecast area today due to lack of middle level energy /kicker/. In fact, 850 mb winds will persist from the southwest for much of the day. Showers are expected to come to an end across southeast Georgia by midday...with surface frontal boundary advancing across northeast Florida during the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across northeast Florida where temperatures are forecast to warm into the lower to middle 70s, with surface-based cape between 500 and 1000 j/kg. These thunderstorms may become strong south of a Gainesville to St. Augustine line where moisture axis will reside.

Front is forecast to exit south this evening, likely stalling across central Florida late tonight. Numerical models indicate atmosphere will remain somewhat moist tonight with middle-level energy arriving from the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are expected to initially traverse the northern Florida Peninsula this evening, with activity spreading into southeast Georgia after midnight. These showers will be light with projected quantitative precipitation forecast values of a tenth of an inch or less.

Today's Pollen Levels: 5.4 Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Cedar/Juniper.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/