Today: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Breezy, with a south wind between 7 and 15 mph. 


Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Hazardous Weather: A strong cold front will move across the area tonight. Thunderstorms are expected in advance of the front. A few storms may become severe across southeast Georgia and possibly the Suwanee Valley area this evening and continuing into the night. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts.


Forecast Details: High pressure ridge aloft was noted just north of the Bahamas and progressive trough was over the Mississippi Valley and central/northern plains. At surface MSAS analysis indicates warm frontal boundary across far northern Georgia zones. Scattered showers are moving northward over coastal and marine zones. Blended precipitable water imagery shows higher values up to 1.8 inches south of area. Increasing southerly flow will continue to push higher moisture over the County Warning Area and expect shower activity to continue over same areas today. Inland areas can expect isolated to scattered showers during the day.

The forecast area will be firmly within warm sector today. Maximum temperatures will surge into the lower/middle 80s with near record highs possible. This will allow for a portion of the low level jet to mix down and expect sustained winds in the 15-20 miles per hour range and gusts up to 25-30 miles per hour but expected to remain just below 
Lake Wind Advisory criteria. 

Tonight a strong cold front will push a broken squall line into southeast Georgia/Suwannee River valley during the evening hours and expect a continued threat of isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds possible. Storm Prediction Center has this area in a slight risk at this time. This line of convection will continue to slowly progress eastward overnight reaching the East Coast by sunrise Wednesday. Best dynamic support will be north of I-10 where a 40-50 knot low level jet is expected. Strong gusty winds will be possible overnight with lingering shower/thunderstorm activity as it moves east. Have continued probability of precipitation in the 70-80% range over far northern zones and 50-70% range elsewhere. 

Today's Pollen Levels: 1.5 Low (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen:Ragweed

Spotters are requested to prepare for activation this afternoon and evening for the upcoming severe weather event.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/