...Slight Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms Today With Near Record Warmth Expected Tuesday And Wednesday.. 


Today: A 50 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. Calm wind becoming south between 6 and 9 mph. 


Tonight:  A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Patchy dense fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind between 3 and 5 mph. 


Hazardous Weather: 


...Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Today...
The atmosphere will become increasingly moist and unstable today ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to move west to east during the day. If enough instability can develop prior to the onset of convection, then a few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado is also possible.
Areas of fog will be possible late tonight over inland areas with locally dense fog in some areas. 


Forecast Details: Middle to upper level trough over the lower Mississippi Valley region will move east northeast across the southeast United States today. The wave will dampen some but the associated dynamics will remain appreciable as a 90 knot upper level jet translates across the local forecast area. The strongest shortwave energy will remain north of the area but there is potential for unseasonably strong destabilization over the local forecast area. Dew points will climb to around 70 degrees in increasing southerly flow. The biggest forecast challenge is figuring out how much the area is able to warm up ahead of precipitation and thick cloud cover. A lead shortwave kicked off an area of convection over the northeastern Gulf overnight. The associated convective cloud debris is just upstream and it could act to inhibit destabilization. This feature seems to be deteriorating, thus increasing the potential for insolationm although it will be filtered through a cirrus deck. According to model soundings, an initial parcel of 80/70 will yield 2500 j/kg of cape as middle level lapse rates steepen during the day. If we reach the middle 80s, a few severe thunderstorms will be possible. This is certainly a possibility, especially in our southern and eastern zones, where precipitation will likely hold off until later in the day. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats but an isolated tornado is possible, especially if the flow backs to the east near the coastline late this afternoon. Will highlight the severe weather potential in the severe weather potential statement but the uncertainty regarding the degree of destabilization remains high enough to preclude the use of any enhanced wording in the zones at this time.
With respect to the rain, have decided to expand the 60 % line down to the I-10 corridor. Average rainfall amounts are expected to be less than a half an inch in southeast Georgia and less than a quarter inch in northeast Florida, although locally higher amounts will be possible. The shortwave will quickly eject northeast this evening and upper ridging will waste no time in re- building across the area.



Today's Pollen Levels: 6.0 Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Ragweed.



For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/