..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Plan your trip Local Radar Detailed Forecast

Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning then showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 %.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 %.

Hazardous Weather Outlook: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the coast during the morning and inland during the afternoon. Slow movement of the storms will result in locally heavy rainfall in excess of 2 inches in some locations which may cause localized flooding. The storms may become strong inland and will be capable of frequent cloud to ground lightning and strong and gusty winds.

Forecast Details: MSAS analysis showing high pressure extending from the middle Atlantic into southeast Georgia. There was a quasi stationary front across central Georgia, an inverted trough forming offshore the Florida East Coast and broad 1000-500 mb trough situated across North Florida and another in the north central Gulf. The RUC/satellite also indicating a vorticity maximum just southwest of JAX resulting in considerable clouds. WSR 88D indicating scattered showers just offshore Flagler and the lower St Johns County coast moving very little. Radar also indicating possible weak circulation off the coast. There was a cluster of showers/storms in the north central Gulf moving northheast.

Saturday a big differences emerge in the models but appears continued high probability of precipitation are in order for the area as front to the north starts to sink south and broad trough continues over the area today with middle level impulses traversing the area. The vorticity maximum southwest of JAX will lift slowly north today.The inverted trough will push towards the coast this morning and move inland bringing scattered showers/isolated storms to the coast this morning and moving inland this afternoon. Short wave moving in from Gulf will also help generate scattered showers/storms near Suwannee Valley area this afternoon. Appears NAM may be too aggressive with development of coastal trough and have leaned more towards the GFS.

Today's Pollen Levels: 7.0 Low Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Ragweed, Grass and Chenopods.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/