"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning."
George Carlin
...Continued Hot With Increased Rain Chances...
Today: A 50 % chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph.
Tonight: A 40 % chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. West-southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
...Hot Conditions To Continue Along With A Slight Chance Of Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon And Evening...
High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will push heat indices into the 104 to 108 degree range this afternoon. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors.
Scattered storms are expected to develop today mainly during the afternoon and evening as the sea breezes begin to develop and progress inland. Storm motion will be toward the east at 5 to 10 mph. scattered strong to isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail will be possible. The slow storm motion will lead to locally heavy rainfall as well. Excessive lightning is expected in the stronger storms.
Today's pollen level: 3.1-Low Medium (on a scale of 1to12): predominate pollen: Grass and Oak.
Forecast Details: high pressure ridge that was overhead yesterday has been shunted south and east of the forecast area and this will lead to higher rain chances through the short term period as a bit more short-wave energy and lift from the westerlies pushes into the forecast area. The GFS still has this ridge overhead and is the reason why rain chances are only around 20% today, since there was much more convection yesterday afternoon/evening than the GFS suggested have gone much closer to the NAM/SREF forecast for closer to 40-50% chance again today.
Slowly dissipating convective debris clouds this morning will keep heating down just a tad from yesterday with highs in the mid/upper 90s once again with heat indices in the 104-108 range this afternoon. This strong heating combined with short-wave energy in the westerlies will set the stage for scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail possible across northeastern Florida as well.
Did you know that...?
1972- Hurricane Agnes forms east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The storm would eventually strike the Florida Panhandle as a minimal hurricane before moving north and rejuvenating over the Northeast, causing record flooding across the region.
1989 - Daytime thunderstorms produced severe weather from northern Florida to the Middle Atlantic Coast. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, and there were 138 reports of large hail and damaging winds.
For more weather information go to NWS/JAX at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
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