Tuesday WX Outlook...

Today: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 92. West-southwest wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Tonight: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southwest wind.

...Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon with Locally Heavy Rainfall....

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected between US 301 and I-95. Thunderstorms will likely approach the Atlantic coast during the early evening before dissipating. The strongest storms will produce frequent lightning, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and possibly small hail.

Today's pollen level: 3.9-low medium (on a scale 1 to 12), predominate pollen: Grass, Hickory & Oak.

Forecast Details: A surface high is currently positioned well to our east with southerly winds present over the coastal sections. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a weak trough stretches across the region. Doppler radar shows scattered showers and storms over the coastal waters and mainly beyond 20 NM, with dry conditions across the local mainland. Satellite imagery indicates low clouds have become extensive across southeast Georgia, with mostly clear skies across northeast Florida.

Numerical models indicate slightly drier air will work eastward into the area today. This item will likely result in less coverage of showers and storms, although the environment remains quite unstable and storms will again erupt later this afternoon with a sea breeze merger between highway 301 and I-95 corridor. Have capped rain chance at 50 %, although the day shift may need to adjust this higher for the eastern zones. A weak steering flow will again pose the concern of heavy rainfall resulting in some flooding, especially in vicinity of sea breeze merger. Activity will likely focus over the coastal counties and adjacent coastal waters early this evening before dissipating.

Almost a carbon copy forecast for Wednesday and Thursday with only slight changes in synoptic/mesoscale features. Have discounted GFS depiction of surface low ejecting east over the Northern Gulf of Mexico as this model is likely suffering from grid scale feedback. Showers and storms will likely initiate along and west of the I-75 corridor each morning with activity Spreading east/northeast and increasing during the afternoon.