Monday WX Outlook...

Today: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Northeast wind between 3 and 8 mph.

Tonight: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. East-northeast wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.

Showers are expected to develop on the East Coast and gradually transition inland as scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Isolated severe storms will be possible once again with strong gusty winds and large hail the main concerns.

There will be a second area of storms to develop north of the area and push down the East Coast late this evening into the overnight hours with strong activity possible.

One of the most difficult setups for models to depict correctly this time of year is that of north or northwest flow aloft. This was the scenario late last evening as convection which blossomed along the sea breeze over Charleston area propagated south with mean steering flow to arrive at our doorstep at 10 pm. Fortunately, instability was on the wane by this time and activity fizzled but this pattern looks to continue for the next several days with increased moisture and instability.

Currently the area is under the influence of weak ridging that extends through the Carolinas becomes more difficult to discern over our area. In fact the ridge was replaced temporarily by surface trough that was aided in development by the sea breeze. This feature likely helped maintain north flow convection for as long as it could through late evening.

For today we will begin to see surface ridge build southward with a backdoor front arriving early in the morning hours for the Georgia Coast. This will allow an overall increase in available moisture for storm development with PWATS increasing to 1.60 by day's end. Expect an earlier start to convection than previous days, but still only slight chance to low end scattered showers for the coast in the morning. This activity will transition inland during the afternoon and will favor the WRF and SREF depictions of an I-75 Corridor collisions with best chance of showers there. In addition, continued northerly steering flow will serve two purposes.

It will allow initially for upstream activity to propagate along the sea breeze and enhance activity along it during the afternoon. Would expect another round of isolated severe with strong winds and marginal hail for the interior. Secondly, expect steering flow to allow for some late evening/early overnight convection to move in late along the coast once again with increased probability of It sustaining itself due to higher moisture content from today's values.

Today's allergy levels: 4.2-Low-Medium (on a scale of 1-12); predominant pollen: Grass, Hickory/Pecan and Oak.