...Most Of The Area Is Experiencing Moderate To Severe Drought Conditions...
Synopsis...
After a very dry October when many areas failed to record any Measurable rainfall, all areas recorded measurable rainfall during The first half of November. The heaviest rain occurred along the coast in Duval county on November 2nd and 3rd when a band of coastal showers dumped 3 to 5 inches of rain. More widespread rain, although Not nearly as heavy, occurred on two separate Occasions during the first half of November both In association with strong cold frontal systems. Rainfall totals from these two events averaged around a half an inch to an inch, just enough to prevent drought conditions from getting any worse.
Based on the most recent U.S. Drought monitor product, issued Thursday November 18th, southeast Georgia continues to experience moderate to severe drought conditions. In northeast Florida, the coastal counties have improved from extreme drought conditions to severe drought conditions, and Inland areas are still experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions.
A sustained moderate to possibly strong La Nina is expected to continue through the upcoming local dry season. A La Nina of this magnitude will have a significant impact on the weather across the Southeastern United States, particularly regarding rainfall. Seasonal outlooks indicate a high chance of drier than normal Conditions continuing through the next 6 months.
Summary Of Impacts...
Soil moisture conditions... Soil moisture rankings indicate that most of the area remains below The 5th percentile level for this time of year and some areas have
dropped below the one percentile level.
River and streamflow conditions... With the exception of the Altamaha River, streamflows are running very low for this time of year, below The 10th percentile.
Agriculture impacts... Fall harvesting is in full swing and currently running ahead of the
5 year average with the condition of most crops reported as either fair or good. Pasture conditions were mostly in fair condition with some pasture very poor due to frost. Winter forage planting is active.
Fire danger... The potential for an abnormally warm and dry winter during a La Nina
episode could set the stage for greater than normal wildfire Activity through the spring fire season. This potential is likely to be compounded in areas which are already experiencing moderate to severe drought. Fire danger levels are currently elevated across large portions of the region and this trend is expected to become more pronounced over the coming months.
Climate summary... Most areas received only 25 to 50 % of normal precipitation During a 90 day period ending on November 17th. As of November 17th, Many areas of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida were experiencing calendar year rainfall deficits of 8 to 14 inches with some areas near the Atlantic coast experiencing deficits of 16 to 20 inches.
Based on the Palmer Long Term Drought Index, 6 to 9 inches of Rainfall are needed to end drought conditions across the area.
Precipitation/temperature outlook... Short and medium range model data indicate that the next best chance of rain will come around Thanksgiving Day. Widespread beneficial rainfall however does not appear likely.
The long term outlook through April 2011, largely based on current La Nina projections, continues to call for below normal precipitation and now calls for slightly above normal temperatures.
Hydrologic outlook... The fall and winter seasons are typically dry across the area. based on current rainfall projections, soils will become even drier, river flows will reduce further and well levels will continue to decline.
Next issuance... The National Weather Service office in Jacksonville Florida will update this local drought information statement by mid December or as conditions warrant.
Related web sites...
Additional information on current drought conditions may be found at The following wed sites /use lower case letters/:
NWS WFO Jacksonville...http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax
NOAA Drought Page...http://www.drought.noaa.gov
Climate Prediction Center...http://www.cpc.noaa.gov
Southeast Region Climate Center...http://www.sercc.com
U.S. Drought Portal...http://www.drought.gov
National Agricultural Statistics Services...http://www.nass.usda.gov
USGS Web Page...http://water.usgs.gov/
Acknowledgments...
Data for this statement was compiled from a variety of Federal, State And local agencies. The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort which involves the noaa national weather service and national climatic data center, the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Questions or comments...
If you have any questions or comments on this Drought Information Statement, please contact...
WFO Jacksonville
13701 Fang Drive
Jacksonville, FL 32218
Phone: 904-741-4370
www.srh.noaa.gov/jax
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