Today: A 50 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. South wind between 6 and 8 mph. 

Tonight:  A 40 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Light south wind. 

Hazardous Weather Outlook: An upper level disturbance will bring a broad area of rain with embedded thunderstorms across north Florida early this morning. Gusty winds, frequent lightning and periods of heavy rainfall are possible.

Later this afternoon instability will increase as another upper level disturbance approaches the area from the west. Numerous showers and storms are expected across southeast Georgia and near the Atlantic coast into this evening.

Tonight low pressure system will continue to strengthen west of the area. a few strong to possibly severe storms will be possible after midnight as the cells move inland from the Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning. gusty winds and a few rotating storms will be possible. periods of heavy rainfall will also be likely.

Forecast Details: Surface data shows a frontal boundary laying across the central Carolinas,northern Georgia to central Alabama and Mississippi. Weak low pressure areas around 1011 MB noted over Georgia and Alabama along the front. Weak north-south surface troughing noted in our County Warning Area over central zones. Another low pressure system/surface convergence noted in the northeast Gulf just southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Aloft, weak middle level disturbance that affected our County Warning Area early this morning has lifted northward into southeast Georgia and moving into southern South Carolina, so areas of precipitation mainly in form of showers has lifted northward. Further to the northwest, water vapor imagery shows a potent middle and upper level low over Illinois dropping southward.

For today/tonight, models show the middle-upper low moving to northern Arkansas/Mississippi by after midnight and increasing middle and upper level forcing/Omega with the flow off the Gulf of Mexico increasing late today and especially tonight with plenty of moisture to work with. Surface front to our north and west will start to shift southeastward. In the meantime, a good portion of the area today will see some negative vorticity advection with best forcing albeit fairly weak over our west and northwest zones. Therefore, precipitation chances will continue to favor inland and northwest zones today. As the precipitation lifted northward this morning, have tweaked eastern/southern zone probability of precipitation downward a bit and adjusted inland zones upwards about 10% with near 80% for a few inland southeast Georgia zones. Current cloud cover will also help minimize instability to at or below 2200 j/kg of SBCAPE and maximum temperatures, which are forecast at middle and upper 80s. Tweaked temperatures up a bit for the southern zones with some breaks in the cloud cover expected. 

Today's Pollen Levels: 3.5 Low Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Ragweed, Grass and Chenopods.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/