Today:Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a southeast wind 9 to 16 mph becoming southwest. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tonight: A slight chance of rain before 1am. Areas of fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. West wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Hazardous Weather: rainfall will progressively increase across southeast Georgia this morning as the low approaches and a warm front develops across north Florida. Low level winds over Georgia will become more northerly as the low nears, which may draw down colder air.
As the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon on the south side of the low and in advance of a trailing cold front, there is a possibility of isolated strong storms across north Florida and along the southeast Georgia coast. Strong storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. Some cells may begin to rotate which a very low chance of an isolated tornado.
Forecast Details: the strength of dynamics around the approaching Gulf of Mexico surface low eroded the surface wedge that was over our northern zones. Warm air advection was occurring across our zones due to east-northeast winds vs north-northeast if The Wedge had held across the area. Model soundings and nomograms still support a very slight chance of freezing rain across our northwest Georgia zones. By late morning too much warm air will be in place as the low approaches with widespread rain across our Georgia zones and scattered rain showers across our Florida zones near the approaching warm front.
There are increased chance of thunderstorms across our coastal and North Florida zones this afternoon near and south of the approaching warm front. Satellite shows thunderstorms firing in advance of the approaching cold front across the eastern Gulf with elevated ts north of the warm front over the Florida Panhandle. Model soundings show capped low levels and weak instability across our zones today but if enough veering of winds below 850 can occur and advect slightly warmer and more moist Gulf of Mexico air across the County Warning Area surface based convective available potential energy and lifted indices would rise enough near and along the warm front and along the cold front this by midday to support isolated thunderstorms. Strong storms will be possible if storms due manifest with gusty winds and rotating cells given a strong low level jet and storm relative helicity values.
Temperatures will range from the 40s across our northwest Georgia zones to near 70
south today. Precipitation will decrease this evening from west to east as drier air begins to infiltrate in the middle levels. Lingering low level wrap-around moisture as the surface low crosses and departs northeast along the Atlantic Seaboard may yield patchy drizzle across the area. Areas of fog are likely across many areas after midnight due to lingering ground moisture and a lingering wake trough pooling moisture and bringing light winds.
Lows tonight will range from middle 30s to near 50 across the south. Tuesday temperatures will remain cool across Georgia with highs near 50 to upper 60s to the south. Tuesday night a reinforcing trough will push south of the County Warning Area with much colder air across the County Warning Area with a freeze expected across inland areas and due to elevated winds a Wind Chill Advisory likely for northeast Florida.
Wednesday through Friday a cold airmass will be in place as a very strong surface high builds from the central Continental U.S. slowly eastward. Highs will range in the 50s with lows below freezing with a possibly hard freeze Thursday morning.
The surface ridge gradually weakens while shifting farther south-southeast and Saturday onshore flow develops locally with highs warming into the 60s over the weekend. Introduced a low chance of rain showers Monday as the next front approaches from the northwest.
Today's Pollen Levels: 0.7 Low (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Cedar/Juniper
… A Significant Weather Advisory Has Been Issued For Southern Alachua... Southwestern Clay And Western Putnam Counties For Strong Winds And Small Hail Valid Until 845 AM EST...
At 822 am EST National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm centered 7 miles west of Archer or 3 miles north of Bronson, moving east at 60 mph. This strong thunderstorm will affect areas around Archer, Gainesville, Rochelle, Gainesville Airport, Newnans Lake, Orange Heights, Grove Park, Putnam Hall, Melrose and Lake Geneva through 845 am EST.
Hail up to three quarter inch in diameter and gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.
Report damage to the nearest law enforcement agency or your County emergency management.
For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
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