The state of Florida used to welcome thousands of new residents a day, but new estimates suggest the state will see the smallest increase in population since the 1940s. University of Florida researchers project that only about 21,000 people will relocate to Florida this year. That’s after the state saw its population actually decline last year for the first time since World War II.

Stan Smith/UF population researcher: “With the recession, Florida has lost hundreds of thousands of jobs over the last 3 years and as a result of that you have many fewer people moving into the state and an increase in the number moving out.”

So what about the allure of warmth and sunshine for new retirees, a staple of Florida’s population? Economists blame a stubborn housing market.

Stan Smith/UF population researcher: “Where a lot of retirees who might have otherwise moved to Florida have trouble selling their homes in Ohio, New York, Michigan and so forth. So they’re putting off a move.”

Researchers warn stagnant growth will affect public expenditures, such as state and local budgets. While Florida’s population remains flat, states such as New York have actually seen an uptake in population as fewer people leave.