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..SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ...
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Today: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 %.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 70. East winds 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 %.
Hazardous Weather Outlook: scattered thunderstorms will persist through the morning hours over the florida coastal waters with isolated strong activity at times. additional showers will form this morning along the coast and gradually transition inland as scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon. a few of the storms may produce strong wind gusts along dangerous cloud to ground lightning. the main focus for these storms will be over the florida portion between the 301 and I-75 corridor.
Forecast Details: latest regional view of the msas analysis shows high pressure building in over the middle Atlantic and beginning to bridge down the eastern Seaboard toward the southeast states. Also of note is low pressure over the southwest Gulf in association with Tropical Depression Ten. Deepest moisture extends from this feature through the Gulf and south of frontal feature which pushed into our area last night. Front has already moderated as it begins to become diffuse. Lower 60s dewpoints which we saw last night over southeast Georgia have been replaced with upper 60s to around 70 at this hour.
At the middle and upper levels, first main shortwave which accounted for activity over the Florida portion of our area has pushed into central Florida taking main convective bands well offshore of the Mainland. 70 knot upper jet is also lifting northeast out of the area and maximum lift will have abated by 12z this morning according to RUC.
Still another shortwave to contend with as both models show disturbance moving through from middle morning on. Without aforementioned upper jet streak, feel lift will be less with this shortwave than yesterdays. Still enough instability and low level moisture present to warrant isolated convection today. Will lean toward the GFS depiction of main convergent zone along the 301 corridor this afternoon with 40 % probability of precipitation there. Further west do not feel convection will progress there and will carry 30 % probability of precipitation.
Today's Pollen Levels: 8.3 Medium High (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Ragweed, Grass and Chenopods.
For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
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