
Today: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 %. Heat index readings 105 to 109 in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening...then slight chance of showers after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. Southeast winds 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 %.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to become widespread along and north of the I-10 corridor today. Main threat will be locally very heavy rainfall potentially several inches in slow moving thunderstorms. Isolated strong wind gusts and intense cloud to ground lightning will also be possible.
Forecast Details: Circulation associated with remnants of TD 5 is a little broader this morning per regional radar mosaic and surface observations. As of 3 am the broad center was located over southeast Alabama (just southwest of Fort Benning). A surface trough extended east across our northern County Warning Area and into the Atlantic. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently developing across the southeas not surprising considering that temperatures and dewpoints are in the upper 70s.
Weak surface convergence beneath upper level divergent flow will favor showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread along and north of I-10 today as TD 5 remnant slowly moves south toward the Gulf Coast. Deep tropical airmass over the region (pwats of 2.5+ inches) will make locally heavy rainfall the main concern. Some areas could easily pick up several inches of rain in slow moving thunderstorms, especially where banding occurs. Will go with categorical probability of precipitation from I-10 north, close to GFS MOS guidance.
Maximum temperature forecast quite tricky today. Will continue to forecast at least 90 for all sites away from the beaches but would not be surprised if temperatures check up just short of 90 along and north of I-10, especially given recent trends with precipitation pattern.
Low pressure is prognosticated to emerge in the Gulf tonight and then move to the west on Monday. Drier air will slowly work in from the east as ridge builds back in. Enough moisture will linger on Monday to support potential for numerous afternoon thunderstorms over the interior due to the likelihood of a seabreeze collision in very weak flow pattern.
Today's Pollen Levels: 5.4 Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Grass and chenopods.

For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/


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