..HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...
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Today: Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 %. Heat index readings 105 to 109
Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 5 mph in the evening becoming light.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and a slow storm motion will allow for locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches in the stronger storm activity. gusty winds around 40 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be possible as well.
The combination of temperatures in the low to mid 90s and high humidity will create heat indices around 105 degrees prior to the onset of any precipitation.
Forecast Details: surface ridge is becoming better established over South Florida. MSAS analysis shows a persistent trough on north side of the ridge. Middle level disturbance along surface trough is enhancing convection just southwest of the local area. Mean layer ridge remains over the Atlantic with a south-southeast steering flow over the area this morning.
The Bermuda high pressure will re-build south of the forecast area through the end of the weekend will alter the steering flow to southwesterly late this afternoon into Thursday then become westerly by Friday. Precipitable waters will be well above 2 inches especially north of the ridge axis. Models show a series of disturbances riding over the middle level ridge and should timing coincide with maximum heating then conds will be favorable for above climatology probability of precipitation in 40-60% range each afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall amounts can be expected as steering flow will be 10kt or less. Weak lapse rates and warm temperatures at middle levels (-5c at 500mb) will keep storms below severe levels.
Dog days of Summer will continue with hot, humid conditions. Highs will be in low/middle 90s and with high moisture levels, the heat indices will be 105 degree each day. Typically the region surrounding the Okefenokee Swamp will feel even warmer but think conditions will be marginal for heat advisory.
Today's Pollen Levels: 7.1 Medium (on a scale to 12); Predominate Pollen: Grass and Chenopods.
For additional information visit the National Weather Service in Jacksonville website on the internet at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/
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