Monday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 91. South-southeast wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. East-southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming east southeast between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. East wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming east between 5 and 8 mph.
Wednesday Night: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Thursday: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Friday: A 30 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 93.
Friday Night: A 20 % chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening with the most coverage across the inland areas. Strong storms are possible with frequent lightning and locally heavy rain.
Forecast Details:
Synopsis... pattern of weak low-pressure surface/aloft continues over the area this morning. Short wave along the northeast Gulf Coast forecast to move west. Weather pattern will gradually change over the next 48 hours as upper trough fills and is replaced by a weak ridge just north of the area. At the surface the high-pressure ridge that has been just south of the area will shift north and be over the northeast Florida by this afternoon and north of the area Tuesday/Wednesday.
Short Term… Monday, afternoon convection will be widespread, initiating along the sea breezes and also south of weakening frontal boundary to the north and then overspreading the area as the sea breezes/outflows interact. Middle level impulses rotating around the upper high will also help enhance activity. Main concerns will be lighting and locally heavy rain of 2+ inches. Have gone with likely probability of precipitation most areas today. Have kept probability of precipitation along most immediate coastal areas around 50% but a few storms may even make it to the coast late this afternoon/evening especially JAX north.
Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge moves north of the area, the flow becomes more predominately onshore that will bring the possibility of isolated coastal showers in the morning with thunderstorms becoming more widespread inland during the afternoons. Temperatures will warm slightly over the interior sections, with temperatures near normal near the Atlantic coast.
Long term... tropical wave moves well south of the area Thursday/Friday taking much of the moisture with it. With the exception of the southern zones that will see a decease in probability of precipitation Thursday/Friday as an area of subsidence north of the wave moves into the area. Have gone with probability of precipitation increasing again to 30-40% next weekend. Temperatures will be above normal across the inland areas.
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